The FIFA World Cup is one of the most anticipated and exciting sports tournaments. It is a country championship., that is disputed each 4 years, and crown the world champion.
Its great popularity is reflected in sports betting, where users expectantly await the start of the World Cup. This will take place during this 2022, and Qatar. It has a special peculiarity: for the first time, will be held in November and December, instead of the traditional June-July.
An event as important as the World Cup generates a lot of plays. But nevertheless, experts do not participate randomly, but they use different strategies to improve their results.
The Main Game Strategies
Quickly, the first tip to keep in mind is to choose a reliable and safe bookmaker. For example, bet365 Peruis a solid option for Peruvian punters, as well as there are many others in various Latin American countries.
further, also ensures to find all the World Cup matches. The tournament is divided into two main parts. First is the group stage: the 32 Qualified teams are divided into 8 groups, and the top two advance to the knockout stage.
In the second part of the World Cup, the teams face each other in a single elimination match, starting from the round of 16, until reaching the grand finale that crowns the champion country.
As we mentioned above, more experienced users use different methods of play. These are used to improve results, but also to take care of the bankroll, that is to say, the balance they have to play.
The Fixed Value
The first strategy is known as Fixed Value. This is the easiest option, ideal for newer players. Its main idea is very simple: always bet the same value on each play.
Let's give a clear example with different bets referring to the World Cup. In each one of them, the value bet will be the same, of $5:
The Netherlands will win their match against Senegal
One More Less Than +2.5 in Argentina's match against Saudi Arabia
Mbappe will be the top scorer of the tournament
Brazil will reach the final
The Fixed Value strategy allows easy Bankroll management. By betting the same value, you will never suffer great loss, nor will you run out of balance in a few bets.
But nevertheless, its main disadvantage is that it does not adjust to fluctuations in the balance. a bet of $5 in a bankroll of $100, is not the same as in a bankroll of $25. If you suffer a losing streak, fixed plays will represent a higher percentage.
The Percentage Value
This strategy is the most chosen by users. Provide a safe option, and at the same time flexible, to handle the bankroll.
Instead of using fixed amounts, percentages directly related to the available balance are used. The general rule speaks of between a 3% and a 5%, although in some occasions it can increase the value.
with this method, you will get a very effective way to manage your bets, which adapts immediately to positive or negative results.
Let's imagine a scenario, where they start with a balance of $100. Using the Percentage Value, in a 3%, you place a bet that the Netherlands will be leading at the end of the first half by a value of $3.
That play is positive, and along with other good results, increase tu balance a $120. Now, a bet of 3% It is $3,60. Instead, after several negative plays, how Ecuador ends up expelled against Qatar, your bankroll decreases to $70. Then, your new percentage value will be $2,10.
Conclusion, Percent Value is a dynamic method, that adapts to different bankrolls, while not having much difficulty in applying. For that reason, It is one of the most chosen by experts.
Kelly's Criterion
By last, Kelly's Criterion is found. It is the most complicated strategy, since it requires the use of a mathematical formula, together with the ability of each player to determine the probabilities that a result will occur.
The name of the strategy comes from the mathematician John Kelly, in 1956. The main objective of this strategy is to find the value bets, and make the most of them.
The formula consists of the following:
Kelly = (B x P – Q) / B
B: (house fee) – 1
P: Probability that an outcome will occur (according to your opinion)
Q: Probability that the result will not occur, that is 1 – P
If we use the formula and get a negative result, the bet is worthless, and it is preferable to leave it aside in search of another opportunity. Instead, if we get a positive number, it is a value play and you have to bet.
In the world Cup, being a very popular event, bookmakers emphasize the odds of each market. Because, hard to find value bets, and Kelly's criterion can be of great help.
But nevertheless, using a mathematical formula, together with the need to grant own probabilities in each situation, makes it a complex and difficult method for many.
In the end, There are different strategies that can be used.. Each with its advantages and disadvantages. If you are thinking of participating in World Cup betting, We recommend you take these methods into account to improve your chances of winning.
